"DMWS-MTA SZTAKI"
Data Mining and Web search Research Group
Computer and Automation Research Institute, Hungarian Academy of Sciences

VAST 2010 Challenge
Grand Challenge: Arms Dealing and Pandemic

Authors and Affiliations:

Eszter Friedman, MTA SZTAKI, feszter@info.ilab.sztaki.hu
Julianna Göbölös-Szabó, MTA SZTAKI, gobolos.szabo.julianna@gmail.com
Adrien Szabó, MTA SZTAKI, adrienn.szabo4@gmail.com, [PRIMARY contact]
András Lukács, MTA SZTAKI, alukacs@sztaki.hu

Tool(s):

We have used NERVis, a Named Entity Recognizer vizualiser software, developed for this VAST Challenge.

The search and visualization tool PinWallVis is designed to explore and understand large data sets represented by networks was also developed for other projects by our research group at MTA SZTAKI. PinWallVis was further developed to serve VAST 2010 Challenge properly. With different algorithmic engines PinWallVis is able not just to visualize the graph using several different layouts but also provides several further opportunities to work with the graph such as searching in the entities originated from the data, adding extra edges, finding the shortest path between nodes.

The Epidemic Outbreak Visualizer is able to plot the changes of the amount of diseased people in time even filtered by special features like symptoms, age or gender. The tool is able to record unexpected or unusual events or trends which can help in recognizing a new epidemic outbreak. The EOV can provide help in comparing outbreaks in different cities. The tool was implemented for this contest 

Our in-house-made tool builds a tree (using the Neighbor-joining algorithm; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neighbor-joining) from the input DNA sequences and shows the likely evolutionary paths by displaying the tree. Visualization of the computed phylogenetic tree reflects descendance relations in the tree. Colors were added to the nodes in order to represent properties of viruses/sequences. 

Video:

Video

ANSWERS:

GC: Investigate any possible linkage between the illegal arms dealing and the pandemic outbreak. 

In particular, you need to address the following:

1. Briefly describe your hypothesized linkage between the arms dealing activity and the pandemic outbreak.

2. Where did the disease originate (as far as you can tell with the data)?  Provide a time-based tracing of its spread among countries.  If you have established linkages between arms dealers in certain countries and the pandemic, please indicate this. 

3. We had countries with arms dealers identified in MC 1 that did not suffer pandemic outbreaks in MC 2.  Provide a hypothesis as to why some countries that may have been involved with arms dealers did not suffer an outbreak? 

The evolution of the current Drafa virus can be visualized by a phylogenetic tree (dendogram) which shows the most probable parent-child relationships among different virus strains. The screenshot shows that the virus strain that is the closest ancestor of all the current outbreak sequences is “Nigeria_B”.

Based on the evolutionary tree all viruses of the current epidemic outbreak can be traced back to a version of Drafa virus called Nigeria_B. There is a very strong connection between the dates of the several meetings between Russian/Ukrainen arms dealers and other groups of arms dealers originating from different counties and the starting dates of the pandemic outbreaks in their countries.

We used our Epidemic Visualizer tool to analyze the pandemic outbreaks in time considering symptoms, mortality rates and recovery. We have found that we can cluster the considered locations on the basis of the characteristic of the epidemic in the following way:

1.      In Lebanon, Venezuela and Iran, the main symptoms are abdominal pain, back pain, vomiting and diarrhea. Vomiting is the most frequent symptom and it is often combined with the others.

2.      In Colombia and Yemen fever is a new symptom, and like vomiting, it occurs in pair with the rest of the frequent symptoms.

3.      The epidemic is the most severe in Aleppo, Karachi and Nairobi. A possible atypical (less frequent) individual symptom can be nose bleeding, which is as frequent as in the previous group, but in contrast to those countries, here it is accompanied with a higher mortality rate.

Furthermore we are able to recognize the day of the outbreak for each location.

This observation is summarized in the following table based on the reports provided for MC1 and on the epidemic data provided for MC2:

Combining the results above with the fact that Nicolai Kuryakin was also infected by Drafa virus (MC3), we suggest that the most reasonable scenario is the following. Dr. George Ngoki (and possibly others) from Nigeria met Mikhail Dombrovski in Dubai. In their preceding email communication of 11 Feb "minor healthy issue" is mentioned in relation to Nigeria. It is plausible that GN infected MD during the meeting. There are strong arguments that Nicolai Kuryakin is the same person as Mikhail Dombrovski. Both identities are located in Moscow (emails by MD, airplain destination by NK); in MC1 data the printed email address joetomsk@au.ru used by MD contains a link to the real email address NicDeals@au.ru; finally a series of communications by MD do not contradict with the known location of NK. Therefore on all (except the first two) consecutive meetings NK (alias MD) has infected his meeting partners with Drafa virus. This is also supported by the case of arms dealers Thabiti Otieno and Nahid Owidi from Kenya, since it is known that they died suddenly in Nairobi on 1 May after returning from their meeting in Dubai. In another case Salem Ahmed is reported near-death in Yemen on 3 May again after returning from his meeting in Dubai. It seems that NK became infectious only after about two days, which can be the reason why Turkey and Thailand did not suffer from an epidemic.

A somewhat weaker pandemic in Lebanon may be explained by the fact that arms dealers from Gaza used Lebanon only as a transfer point with a possible short stay there. Weaker pandemic outbreak in Venezuela may be explained by the high mutation rate of the Drafa virus, resulting in a less virulent version there. Assuming that missing data from Russia can mean that there was no pandemic there may be explained by the fact that NK did not get back to Moscow.

 Series of notable events

On 10 Feb IL-76 cargo plane (of Ukrainian owner Arkadi Borodinski, seized in Bangkok, Thailand) carrying weapons from North Korea probably to Iran.

In the second half of 2008 at least one transaction of arms was completed between Lim Chanarong (having position in a rebel fraction of Burma) and Nicolai Kuryakin’s group of Moscow with the mediation by Thai arms dealer Boonmee Khemkhaeng.

The key person of the illegal arms trade in Yemen is Saleh Ahmed. In 2008 he likely delivered arms to the illegal local market in Yemen, especially in Sa’ada and he also tried to smuggle arms to Saudi Arabia, where the sale of personal firearms will be allowed as an attempt to undercut the illegal arms trade. The origin of the arms is connected to Russia, since 100 carat diamonds were shipped from Yemen to Moscow (probably to Leonid Minsky) by the money launderer Georgiy Giunter. After the death of Leonid Minsky in Feb 2009 Mikhail Dombrovski took over LM’s business with SA. SA supposedly died on 3 May 2009 after returning from a meeting with Nicolai Kuryakin in Dubai at 19 Apr 2009.

Related to the case of the cargo plane Igor Sviatoslavich was killed in Kiev, Ukraine. Arkadi Borodinski’ business is probably based in Kiev. Ukrainian government had at least one shipment of arms to Kenya government, with a probably illegal re-trade by Kenya to the Southern Sudan government.

Three persons were accused, but later released in connection with raided British armory in Kenya. Two of them died in Nairobi on the 1^st of May after returning from a likely meeting with Nicolai Kuryakin in Dubai at 17 Apr 2009. The case may be also connected with raided police armory used for local disturbances and as preparations for a possible feud in the coming year(s).

The cargo ship MV Tanya was supposedly heading to Kenya, but was captured by pirates and later released for USD 3.2M. Appearance of larger amount of Russian origin arms in Kenya is likely in the future.

The terrorist organization Lashkar-e-Jhangvi looked for new arms after a successful counter-measurement by the Pakistan police in Feb 2008. At least two money transfers (series) (30 March and 17 Nov 2008) from the account probably belonged to Maulana Haq Bukhari, a prominent member of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi to a bank account connected to Mikhail Dombrovski, Russian arms dealer shows the increased activity of MHB to obtain new armoury. Meeting between them in Dubai in Apr 2009 forecasts further transaction.

Mikhail Dombrovski, Moscow, Russia built new connection with near-government partner Dr. George Ngoki from Nigeria. The nature of the business seems fraud and money laundering, but arms dealing may also occur.

Successful action of Venezuelan police in Oct 2008 generates demands for new source for arms in the county. A buyer was connected to Mikhail Dombrovski of Russia by a middleman from Colombia. Money transfer was detected in Dec 2008 and a planned meeting in UAE in Apr 2009 predicts further deals.

Martyrs Front of Judea located in Gaza/West Bank plans to increased activity in May 2009, and looking for arms from multiple sources. Muhamed Kashem, a leader of MFJ and others organized a meeting to perform possible arms deal of Russian origin in Dubai for 18 Apr 2009.

Greater number of new recruits in a military training camp in Syria generates the demand of new arms. Their connection in Turkey using a middleman from Bosnia reached Russian arms dealers. The business was planned to complete in Dubai at the middle of Apr 2009.

During the series of meeting in Dubai and UAE in April 2009 Nicolai Kuryakin (alias Mikhail Dombrovski) was also infected by Drafa virus when he met Dr. George Ngoki (and possibly others) from Nigeria. On all (except the first two) consecutive meetings Nicolai Kuryakin has infected his meeting partners with Drafa virus.

A consequence of the infected arms dealers was the epidemic outbreak in their country of origin. Turkey and Thailand did not suffer from an epidemic. During the epidemic several prominent people in connection with illegal arm dealing have died and some were arrested, new participant are expected to take part.